Forecast is cold with hot air coming from the south

By MPP Bobbi Ann Brady

In my 25-year career, I’ve grown accustomed to moving from Christmas to New Year’s to farm meeting season – a season to which I look forward and truly appreciate. The season kicked off with the Elgin/Norfolk District 5 Grain Farmers Annual General Meeting – much of the conversation centered on President Elect Donald Trump’s threat of a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from Canada come day one of his presidency (January 20th).

The year is starting off with a great deal of turbulence. Speaking of turbulence, I’m fresh off flights from Des Moines, Iowa, where I was honoured to be asked to take part in the State Agriculture Rural Leaders’ Summit. Quite a large contingent of Canadians attended, including federal members of parliament and several agricultural industry professionals. I was one of two Ontario MPPs who attended.

As Canadians, our number one focus while at the summit was to connect with as many American policymakers as possible. Many Americans in attendance were Republicans and clearly understood our concerns with Trump’s recent statements. While American counterparts attempted to reassure us, they believe much of what is being said is simply bluster, we took the opportunity to remind them if they want to protect some of the farm families in their own states, they may well pay attention.

Canada and the United States continue to anchor the most competitive and resilient economic region in the world.  Every single day, over US$2.5 billion worth of goods and services crosses the Canada-U.S. border. The U.S. sells more goods to Canada than to any other country; in fact, we buy more U.S. goods than China, Japan, and Germany combined. Canada is also the largest export market for 36 states, in the top three for 46 states; and 43 states export over US$1 billion to Canada annually.

About 900,000 American workers are employed by Canadian-owned businesses operating in the U.S., with nearly eight million U.S. jobs directly tied to trade with Canada.

Canada is the number one supplier of energy to the U.S. as Canadian energy fuels the American economy. Our bilateral, two-way energy trade totalled US$153.7 billion in 2023.

On the farm front, Canada-U.S. agriculture and agri-food trade is massive, with highly integrated supply chains that deliver safe, high-quality, and affordable food to millions. In fact, Canada and the U.S. share one of the largest agricultural bilateral trading relationships in the world, reaching US$72.5 billion in 2023.

By working together, the agricultural sector on both sides of the border takes advantage of efficiencies that contribute to global food security, allow us to feed the world, help tackle rising food prices, and build resilient North American supply chains during times of global supply chain uncertainty as witnessed during the pandemic. These supply chains not only benefit consumers but farmers and processors as well.

In 2023, Canadians spent on average six times more per person on U.S. agricultural products compared to what Americans spent on Canadian products. ​ The recent Canada-U.S. agricultural trade imbalance in Canada’s favour is due to higher import values, not increased volumes. Notably, agricultural trade includes inputs like pesticides and equipment, where the U.S. holds a trade surplus.

On the manufacturing side, roughly 70 per cent of Canadian goods exports to the United States are used in the production of other goods.

I believe maintaining these integrated supply chains contributes to the strength and viability of local food systems, vibrant border communities, as well as our shared sustainability goals. I am hopeful President Elect Trump will come to the same conclusion because a 25 per cent tariff will punish both sides of the border. Let’s hope all this turbulence is just hot air coming from the south.

Bobbi Ann Brady is the MPP for Haldimand-Norfolk