By MPP Bobbi Ann Brady
The 2025 Ontario budget recently dropped. I saw some items within that gave me hope but also concern. Overall, there’s mega borrowing, spending, and higher debt for the people of Ontario. But there was some mention of action on the contraband tobacco file and rural Ontario as well.
To get a better feel for it, I read the budget then scoped through ample media reports and as usual, being a fiscal conservative, I checked what Fraser Institute (FI) analysts thought about it. Their analysis struck a chord with me.
FI pointed out the Ford government cranked up the volume to an ear-splitting $14.6 billion deficit for 2025/26. That’s $13.1 billion larger than the $1.5 billion deficit the government expected in its fiscal update in front of this year’s provincial election. Where the government previously projected a $900 million surplus, they are now weighing us down with a deficit of $7.8 billion for 2026/27.
And for this fiscal year, Ontario’s provincial debt will reach approximately $460.8 billion or $28,184 per person. That ranks us as having the second-largest per-person debt of any province; our friends in Newfoundland and Labrador have the dubious honour.
FI scribes note that Premier Ford attributes this fiscal quandary to President Trump tariffs, but they feel Ontario is actually in this vulnerable position thanks to the Ford government’s spendthrift ways since first taking power in 2018—I concur. The Ford government consistently neglected to balance the budget or stand the province in better stead in the face of any economic struggles. FI recounted the situation in 2024 when the government had a revenue uptick concurrent with a cut in debt interest costs, which could have meant cutting costs to balance the budget. Instead, Team Ford opted for higher spending and borrowing and running deficits for six out of seven years, hence piling on new debt to the tune of $105.1 billion.
So here we are. A mountain of debt, more spending on tap and, by many economists’ views, a recession in sight.
Now what warmed my heart a little was the budget’s blurb on tobacco: “The presence of contraband tobacco undermines public health objectives, impacts public safety through links to organized crime, and negatively impacts Ontario’s revenue integrity.”
While not providing specific numbers or tactics, the government has renewed its commitment to meting out serious consequences to those dealing in contraband tobacco. I have been after this government on this issue since my election in 2022, so I’m glad they are taking action on this file.
They also committed to strengthening and investing in the Ministry of Finance’s partnership with the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) for the Contraband Tobacco Enforcement Team (CTET). It is tasked with investigating the links between contraband tobacco and organized crime.
Being a country girl, I was pleased to see the budget support rural Ontario by increasing Risk Management Program (RMP) funding from $150 million to $250 million annually (Something for which I advocated in the Ontario Legislature.); doubling of annual funding for the Rural Ontario Development program for the next two years, which means $20-million invested in projects throughout rural Ontario; a “Buy Ontario, Buy Canadian” day to encourage consumers to buy local products; funding and supports for Ontario grape growers, wineries, distilleries, cideries and microbreweries; and, a ten-year $223 billion infrastructure investment plan that incorporates rural roads and highspeed broadband plus funding for municipal roads and bridges connecting to provincial highways. I guess they had to make up a bit to rural Ontario as they have neglected them in the past few budgets and economic statements.
While I am a fiscal conservative, I am big on fair pay for all government employees and targeted, measured, sensible, and strategic spending that gets results and improves services and lives for all Ontarians. I believe it’s possible to balance the books while spending wisely to get the job done. Over the next four years, I’ll be encouraging the government to do just that.
Bobbi Ann Brady is the MPP for Haldimand-Norfolk